2019 Oscar Predictions


Oh, boy. Here we go. No host. Another bloated 4 hour telecast. No Best Director nod for Bradley "Handsome Man" Cooper. What a time to be alive.

Here are my picks (in bold):

Best Picture:
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

Okay. Here's the deal. The Favourite is a masterpiece and by a country mile the best film nominated of the bunch (sorry, ROMA). It is also a film that "empowers" women and has, to my knowledge, no "problems" or "controversies" attached to it like some other nominees. It's also the culmination of some brilliant work by Yorgos Lanthimos in his last few features. The Favourite is hilarious and riveting throughout, a lit lesbian Barry Lyndon for the ages.

Best Actor:
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

This one is hard. Dafoe could be the dark horse. Bale probably gave the best performance but there is something about Malek as Mercury that is going to be his defining role.  The film, however problematic of a biopic it is, makes for instantly iconic imagery with Malek as Mercury. The last act at Live Aid is probably enough to get Malek the Oscar tonight. 

Best Actress:
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Although it could be deemed as Glen Close's time, the whispers out in Hollywood have been
that everyone is voting for Colman -- whose performance is fucking amazing anyways. 

Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Regina King may very well follow-up her Golden Globe win, but I like Weisz's chances
after she snatched the BAFTA. 

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Potential "Upset": Richard E. Grant  But fuck the haters though, Ali's performance here is awesome and better than what he did in Moonlight. Green Book is a fun movie, screw the Driving Miss Daisy naysayers.

Directing:
BlacKkKlansman, Spike Lee
Cold War, Paweł Pawlikowski
The Favourite, Yorgos Lanthimos
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
Vice, Adam McKay

Watch out for Spike Lee here. Dude should already have a couple Best Director (Do The Right Thing, Malcolm X) Oscars by now, but this could be his honorary one, even though half of BlacKkKlansman is just slapped together. Cuarón already won an Oscar. He could get another one but The Favourite is a much better directed film that has superior photography, camerawork and tone. 

Best Original Screenplay
The Favourite, Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
Vice, Adam McKay

Isn't it bullshit that the guy who wrote The Yakuza, Taxi Driver, Raging Bull and American Gigolo (among others) has not won a gosh-darn Oscar for screenplay? Scharder is one of the greatest screenwriters ever and I would love for this to be his night. Sadly, I don't think it's happening. And The Favourite does have a better script than First Reformed, which got snubbed in the Best Actor category where Ethan Hawke gives arguably the "real" Best Actor performance of the year. 

Best Foreign Language Film:
Capernaum, Lebanon
Cold War, Poland
Never Look Away, Germany
Roma, Mexico
Shoplifters, Japan

NETFLIX for the win! BANG!

Best Animated Feature:
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Isle of Dogs was my favorite film from 2018.. and I'm not even a big Wes Anderson guy. I haven't seen any the other films nominated here. 

Best Original Score:
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

Nicholas Britell is my favorite film composer of the moment. Beale Street is a beautiful piece of work.
Also, why the fuck didn't this film get nominated for BP? Britell also did the awesome score for VICE.

Best Song:
“All the Stars,” Black Panther
“I’ll Fight,” RBG
“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Returns
“Shallow,” A Star Is Born
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings,” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

 Right?

Best Cinematography:
Cold War, Lukasz Zal
The Favourite, Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away, Caleb Deschanel
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
A Star Is Born, Matthew Libatique

I'm glad they are airing this award, because photography is what makes the magic of movies, duh!

Best Documentary Feature:
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG

"It's the, N-O, T-O, R-I, O
U-S, you just, lay down, slow
Recognize a real Don when you see one"



First Man will win a bunch of well-deserved technical awards. 


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